At work and in life we constantly need to make decisions. However, unfortunately, our decision-making is often clouded by biases and false assumptions, even when we think it is guided by data.
The ladder of inference for decision-making is a powerful tool to help you uncover these biases and guide you to make better decisions.
By understanding and applying the ladder of inference for decision-making, leaders and employees alike can develop more thoughtful, unbiased, and effective decision-making habits.
If you are a corporate trainer and facilitator, or a leadership coach, you can use the ladder of inference model to teach critical thinking and decision-making and help your clients make more informed decisions.
What Is the Concept of the Ladder of Inference for Decision-Making?
The ladder of inference is a concept conceived by Professor Chris Argyris when he observed that, faced with the same facts, different people came to different conclusions.
Based on this concept, whenever we make a decision, we unconsciously climb a series of mental steps.
These steps are influenced by our previous experiences and beliefs. We take these steps unconsciously because this process is so intuitive that we are often not even aware that we are going through it.
The idea is that becoming aware of your ladder of inference for decision-making can help you retrace your steps and uncover your biases and any flawed assumptions you may make.
The 6 Steps of the Ladder of Inference
The ladder of inference for decision-making has 6 rungs, even though some people identify 7 because they count the data we are faced with as the first step.
I will consider the data and facts as the starting point (i.e. the ground level), rather than a rung in the ladder itself.
The Starting Point: Facts and Data
Before you even start climbing your mental ladder of inference for decision-making, you are faced with information that can take many shapes such as numbers, texts, conversations you have with people, something a camera recorded, presentations you attend, words you hear, events you see, behaviors you witness, etc.
You can visualize these facts and data as a puddle gathered at the bottom of the ladder, teaming with information.
Step 1: Selection
The world around us has so much information that it is impossible for any of us to take it all in without making a selection. So, we use mental filters to decide (often unconsciously) what to pick.
The criteria we use to select information from the pool of data include things such as:
- Previous life experiences
- Cultural background
- Beliefs we have built
- Acquired knowledge and previous training
- Emotional state when we are faced with the information
Step 2. Assigning Meaning
The second step in this ladder of inference for decision-making consists in giving meaning to the information we have noticed.
This is the point when we create a narrative for the information to make sense to us. We fit the information into a frame that is shaped by our pre-existing beliefs and experiences. So, you interpret the data to fit it into a narrative.
Step 3. Creating Assumptions
Once you have created a story of what is happening, you build assumptions. This means that, based on your experiences and worldview, you may try to figure out why something is happening, such as the reasons behind a behavior, or you may take certain things for granted because you assume that this is what is bound to happen.
Assumptions serve to bridge any gaps in the information that is missing or incomplete.
Step 4. Conclusions
Once you have made an assumption, you jump to a conclusion. In this step, you summarize the previous steps and draw your understanding of the situation.
Conclusions may be more or less accurate, but they will appear logical to you.
Step 5. Beliefs
The fifth step in the ladder of inference for decision-making is a result of all the conclusions you have come to over time.
Every time you draw a conclusion, it solidifies into a belief and we use those beliefs to make decisions in future situations.
Step 6. Actions
This is the final step in the ladder of inference for decision-making, when you take action based on the previous step.
Your actions then create a new set of circumstances in the environment around you, which you will need to deal with and so you will repeat the process.
2 Loops in the Ladder of Inference for Decision-Making
The ladder of inference for decision-making has two loops between some of its steps. This means that a step can influence how the other step takes shape in the future.
The first loop is between the beliefs stage and the selection of data because the beliefs we hold tend to influence which information we select among the facts in front of us.
The second loop is between our actions and the facts or data. This means that whatever actions we take have repercussions on the world around us, i.e. on how we shape data or influence other people (thus affecting what they think about us and how they interact with us).
So, you can see how important it is to be aware of the ladder of influence for decision-making, because its steps can have far-reaching consequences that stretch into the future.
Also, it is worth noticing that we usually go through the steps of the ladder quite quickly, so it is important to take time and slow down the decision-making process, particularly for important decisions.
Ladder of Inference Workplace Example
Below is a practical example of how a ladder of inference for decision-making might unfold in the workplace with some suggestions on how to counteract its effects.
Scenario: A Manager Assumes an Employee is Disengaged
Imagine a manager (let’s call her Sarah) who witnesses one of her employees (let’s call him John) behave in a way that she thinks is disengaged. For example, she sees John arriving late at meetings and notices that he does not offer many contributions.
So, Sarah concludes that John is disengaged and, without discussing the issue with him, decides to exclude him from future projects that require a creative contribution.
The Data: Sarah’s Observations
Sarah witnesses John arriving late to three meetings and not contributing much in recent discussions.
Stage 1. Selecting Data (What You Focus on)
Sarah decides to focus on some of John’s behaviors, i.e. being late at three meetings and not contributing much.
How to Counteract: Sarah could ask herself if there is any other information she is ignoring. For example, she might ask herself if she is ignoring other patterns of behavior, such as John’s participation in earlier meetings or the quality of his work outside of meetings.
Stage 2. Interpreting Data (Adding Meaning)
Sarah interprets Jonh’s behavior to mean that he is disengaged.
How to Counteract: Sarah could stop and think about whether there may be other explanations for John’s behavior, such as stress or something going on outside work that is affecting him.
Stage 3. Making Assumptions (Filling in the Gaps)
Sarah assumes that John is disengaged because he is no longer interested in his work. She starts to create her own theory of John not liking his job and that he may be looking for other job opportunities elsewhere.
How to Counteract: Sarah could challenge her assumptions and test her theory by talking openly with John and asking him something like: “I’ve noticed you’ve been quieter in meetings lately. Is everything okay, or is there something affecting your participation?”
Stage 4. Drawing Conclusions (Arriving at a Judgment)
By now, Sarah has decided that John is disengaged and that’s it, there is nothing she can do about it.
How to Counteract: Sarah can wonder if this is the only possible conclusion. She can look for evidence to support or contradict this conclusion.
Stage 5. Beliefs (Forming Beliefs About the Situation)
Sarah solidifies her belief that John no longer cares about his work and views him as less valuable to the team.
How to Counteract: Sarah should reflect on how her beliefs are influencing her view of John and whether these beliefs are based on sufficient, balanced evidence.
Stage 6. Taking Action (Responding Based on Beliefs)
Sarah acts according to her beliefs and decides to remove John from any future creative project.
How to Counteract: Before acting, Sarah could have a discussion with John about his recent behavior, and get his input on whether or not he feels engaged or would like support.
Practical Tips for Awareness at Every Stage
- Try to observe facts neutrally
- Look for data from different sources and data that contradicts as well as supporting your assumptions
- Take your time to pause and reflect before jumping to conclusions
- Ask for feedback from other parties
- Engage in dialogue with the people involved
Benefits of Understanding the Ladder of Inference in the Workplace
Understanding the ladder of influence for decision-making can be very helpful in the workplace, particularly for decisions that can have a strategic impact or that can affect people’s career.
This is why, if you are an HR executive in charge of learning and development or a corporate trainer, you might want to use this theory in your decision-making courses for employees.
The benefits of understanding the ladder of influence for decision-making at work can include:
- Helping people slow down their decision-making process to evaluate all facts and biases
- Developing awareness of anything that might affect how they make decisions
- Distinguish between inference and facts
- Becoming aware of bias
- Avoiding jumping to conclusions
Questions You Can Ask to Retrace Your Ladder of Inference
As a corporate trainer, coach and facilitator, there are some questions you can suggest managers and employees ask themselves to become aware of the ladder of influence for decision-making.
For example, they could ask themselves:
- Am I focusing on all the relevant data, or just specific pieces?
- What actual facts have I observed, without interpretation or judgment?
- Am I ignoring any important information?
- Why am I focusing on this particular data?
- Am I selectively paying attention to information that confirms my assumptions or biases?
- Is there other information that I may be overlooking?
- Are there other possible explanations for what I’ve observed?
- What assumptions am I making about the situation or the people involved?
- Do I have enough evidence to support these assumptions?
- How have I arrived at this conclusion?
- Is this conclusion reasonable based on the facts?
- What beliefs are influencing my thinking right now?
- Are my beliefs based on facts, or are they shaped by my assumptions or past experiences?
- Before taking action, should I gather more information or seek clarification from others?
>> See the Decision-Making Teaching Materials for Workplace Training
Owner at Symonds Research Training Materials
Valeria has a PhD in Sociology, has 25 years+ working in education, has taught at the University of Bath &Cardiff Metropolitan University, & Hankuk University (Korea) & worked as a researcher for Exeter University, & has many years of industry experience including with Cardiff University in management roles. She now creates training course materials courseware.